I saw this news item in BusinessWeek
The point of the article is that every invention has had its distractors, people that scoffed at the "latest and greatest" thing. Socrates thought the invention of writing would reduce memory, Thoreau thought there was no need for the telegraph, the telephone was originally rejected because it provided no permanent record of a conversation the way the telegraph did, and the New York Times thought the typewriter would create too many would-be authors. So, when we scoff at Twitter and its limiting 140 characters, or the next thing after that, beware.
That said, how--or maybe when--do we know that an emerging technology is the next thing? Mostly, I think, it has to do with adoption rate, the speed with which the technology is embraced by an ever-growing number. I remember when when not having a fax was a sign your company was not very well established. That same attitude never made it to instant messaging. Sure, IM is sometimes used inside a company, but I see few people using IM today. Twitter, FB, maybe Skype, and some other techs have replaced it.
My quick read is that FB and LinkedIn are hear to stay, blogs are going to diminish except for professional bloggers, Skype will be big in the international phone niche, collaborative sites (e.g. Google Docs and wetpaint) will grow as bridging sites. How do you see it?
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Primarily Facebook was "created" for college students. MySpace was huge while Facebook was just getting out there. Now, MySpace are losing people to Facebook. I think everything in technology is a phase. You have a growth stage, where people tests if they like it, or if it is convenient to use, then the peak where it grows so fast that surpasses every other competitor, and then it falls.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if I agree that Facebook and LindeIn are here to stay but surely, right now they are huge.
As for Google Docs and Wetpaint, i think they will grow as bridging sites since many workplaces and schools are exposing them to their students and employees.
Overall I agree that blogs are going to dimish and that Google Docs and wetpaint will grow as bridging sites.